There will be a terrorist attack in the U.S. in 2007
Islamic terrorists will carry out a major attack within the United States borders between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2007. "Major" means that at least 100 people will be killed.
Yes ~ 5¢
Best open market yes prices
- 100 contracts @ 85¢ - Adam Stout
- 125 contracts @ 95¢ - James Friller
No ~ 95¢
Best open market no prices
There are no offers for buyers of "no" contracts.
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Trades
- 125 contracts @ 5¢
Yes ~ Anna O'Leary
No ~ James Friller
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Terrorist attacks have been carried out with US politics in mind. With the presidential election coming up, these groups will not want to increase the support of tough-on-terrorism candidates like Giuliani. If an attack occurs any time soon, it will be after the election or outside the US.
I'd say there is a 95% or better chance that this won't happen. If 100 people or more are going to be killed in an attack by Islamic terrorists, it is likely to be a bomb of some kind. From what I've read about the Department of Homeland Security, the FBI, and other agencies that focus on terrorist cells within the nation's borders, that kind of bomb plot is the kind of thing where they see flags ahead of time.